Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
